2020 Primary Analysis: 45th Assembly District

The 45th Assembly District falls within the boundaries of Los Angeles County and Ventura County. Jesse Gabriel (D) is the incumbent in this race. Gabriel has been the incumbent since winning a crowded 2018 race.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 20.5%
Democrat- 48.1%
NPP- 25.9%

The open seat in 2018 created a crowded primary. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Daniel Brin (D)- 3.4%
Ray Bishop (D)- 1.5%
Tricia Robbins Kasson (D)- 7.4%
Ankur Patel (D)- 6.4%
Jesse Gabriel (D)- 43.7%
Jeff Bornstein (D)- 5.7%
Justin Clark (R)- 31.9%

As can be expected, Gabriel easily won in November by a margin of 70.3% to 29.7%.

In 2020 Gabriel drew no opponent and will get a free run with no opposition for November.

2020 Primary Analysis: 27th Senate District

The 27th Senate District falls within the boundaries of Los Angeles County and Ventura County. Henry Stern (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2016.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 27.4%
Democrat- 41.9%
NPP- 24.8%

This seat is more competitive than others in the State Senate. It is a likely Democrat seat but under certain circumstances could flip. Here are the 2016 primary results:

George Christopher Thomas (D)- 2.9%
Shawn Bayliss (D)- 6.1%
David Pollock (D)- 7.3%
Janice Kamenir-Reznick (D)- 19.2%
Henry Stern (D)- 27.3%
Steve Fazio (R)- 37.1%

209,468 ballots were cast in this race. Unlike most races in California, the Republican candidate gained a higher percentage of the vote in November in spite of being the only Republican in both races. Fazio got 44.1% of the vote in November but did lose to Stern.

In 2020, the seat was not a friendly one for the Republican candidate. Here are the numbers form the March 2020 election:

Henry Stern (D)- 63.8%
Houman Salem (R)- 36.2%

We basically got a preview of November for this race. In November the follow up race between Henry Stern (D) and Houman Salem (R) will take place.

This one will stay with the Dems as I predict that Henry Stern will win re-election.

2020 Primary Analysis: 33rd Congressional District

The 33rd Congressional District falls entirely within the boundaries of Los Angeles County. Ted Lieu (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2014. He replaced Henry Waxman in this seat.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 22.7%
Democrat- 45.6%
NPP- 26.4%

Here are the 2018 primary results:

Ted Lieu (D)- 61.7%
Emory Rodgers (D)- 8.2%
Kenneth Weston Wright (R)- 30.1%

163,001 ballots were cast in this race. 69.9% of votes went to a Democrat and 30.1% of votes went to a Republican.

In spite of a crowded primary field for 2020, we still saw a Republican emerge to face Ted Lieu in November. Also, Kenneth Wright ran again; however, this time he ran as an NPP. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

Liz Barris (D)- 6.7%
Albert Maxwell Goldberg (D)- 4.3%
Ted Lieu (D)- 60.0%
James Bradley (R)- 18.0%
Sara Sun Liew (R)- 6.5%
Kenneth Wright (NPP)- 4.5%

For this election, we saw 196,654 voters turnout and cast a ballot in this race. 71.0% of the vote went to a Democrat and 24.5% of the vote went to a Republican.

We will now see a November faceoff between Ted Lieu (D) and James Bradley (R). Lieu is the incumbent member of the US House of Representatives. Bradley is a US Coast Guard Veteran and does not hold office.

The registration gap is steep and resources are limited for November. I predict that Ted Lieu is going to win re-election.