2020 Primary Analysis: 53rd Congressional District

The 53rd Congressional District falls within the boundaries of San Diego County. Susan Davis (D) is the incumbent and has held the seat since 2002. She is the only candidate to ever hold CD 53.

However, that will change in 2020 with Davis not seeking re-election.

This district shows the following party registration for the three largest political groups (the source is http://www.l2political.com):

Republican- 22.1%
Democrat- 43.6%
NPP- 28.1%

This is another race that saw a giant number of Republicans run in the 2018 primary. Here are the 2018 primary results:

Susan Davis (D)- 64.1%
Matt Mendoza (R)- 13.6%
Brett Goda (R)- 2.0%
Morgan Murtaugh (R)- 14.3%
Shawn Gino Kane (R)- 3.7%
Bryan Kim (NPP)- 2.4%

145,265 ballots were cast in this race. Davis was easily re-elected in November.

In 2020 we saw tmultiple Democrats and Republicans run for the open seat. Republicans saw some bad luck in this seat with two Democrats moving on to November. Here are the results from the March 3 2020 election:

John Brooks (D)- 1.4%
Jose Caballero (D)- 1.6%
Joseph Fountain (D)- 1.9%
Janessa Goldbeck (D)- 8.5%
Georgette Gomez (D)- 20.2%
Sara Jacobs (D)- 29.2%
Eric Roger Kutner (D)- 0.4%
Annette Meza (D)- 2.1%
Suzette Santori (D)- 0.8%
Joaquin Vazquez (D)- 1.4%
Tom Wong (D)- 3.5%
Michael Patrick Oristian (R)- 7.5%
Famela Ramos (R)- 7.5%
Chris Stoddard (R)- 13.2%
Fernando Garcia (NPP)- 0.9%

191,931 ballots were cast in this race. This seat is going to be a very competitive inner-party battle.

We will now see a matchup between Sara Jacobs (D) and Georgette Gomez (D). Jacobs is the candidate who ran just two years ago I the 49th Congressional District. Gomez has experience on the City Council in San Diego.

Jacobs finished on top in the primary but I think Gomez will have a stronger showing in November. Latino registration is a significant factor in this race as well. I predict that Georgette Gomez is going to win this one.

Author: Chris Emami

Chris Emami is the founder and owner of CEC Consulting and is currently an adjunct professor at Chapman University. His educational background includes a B.A. from California State University, Fullerton in Political Science and a Master of Public Administration degree from National University with a specialization in Public Finance. Additionally, he holds a California Teaching Credential and Real Estate License. His volunteer work includes serving on the City of Anaheim Housing Commission and he was a high school basketball coach for 15 years. In consulting, Chris has worked on numerous political campaigns as a campaign manager and campaign consultant. He has an expertise in research and is considered one of the foremost experts on local campaign finance. His work over the past few years has earned him a strong reputation as one of the leading consultants on local political campaigns. His perspective is unique because his career has been spent mostly working in the private sector. Chris is currently a member of The American Association of Political Consultants. Chris currently resides in Orange County California; however, he frequently travels to Minnesota and Illinois to meet with clients. He does not see geography as a barrier to working with any client. Most importantly he treats all of his clients like family and will return phone calls and respond to e-mails. No client is considered too small to receive top quality service. View all posts by Chris Emami